Two-thirds of Americans will own an iPhone by 2017, calculates analyst

Smartphones will reach saturation point in the U.S. by 2017, and by that time two-thirds of all Americans will own an iPhone – the conclusions Asymco’s Horace Dediu reaches through a series of calculations.

Dediu bases his calculation on three factors. First, that the rate of growth seen in the smartphone market so far will continue at the same pace. Second, saturation point for smartphones will be 90 percent (no technology ever achieves 100 percent). Third, that Apple’s market share will remain roughly constant, Dediu pointing out that iPhone growth has pretty much exactly mirrored the smartphone market as a whole … 

Or, in rather more detailed terms:

One can simply draw a line extending the existing red segment above and read the F/(1-F) figure at any point in time. Solving for F results in a measure of penetration and hence number of users (if population is known.)

An alternative is to use the following formula derived from the linear interpolation of the two measured market shares. iPhone market share is y/(1+y) where y=0.21x and x = F/(1-F) and F is the expected market penetration of smartphones.

So if F = 91%, x = 10, y = 2.11 and therefore the iPhone market share =  68%.

We also know from the plot of the market that F = .91 is reached around February 2017. So we can suggest that at 90% penetration (approximately saturation) the iPhone will have 68% market share of users in the US. Forecasting the addressable market (US population aged older than 13) at about 266 million that implies 180 million US users of the iPhone by early 2017.

Of course, four years is a very long time in the tech industry, and both Nokia and Blackberry prove that past success is no guarantee of future prospects, but it’s certainly a forecast that will put a smile on some faces at 1 Infinite Loop.

Written by: Ben Lovejoy @benlovejoy December 16, 2013/5:07 am - 9to5mac.com

BlackBerry implosion generating even bigger enterprise gains for iPad, says analyst

Concerns about the future viability of Blackberry – once the default choice of mobile device for the enterprise market – have further boosted iPad penetration in businesses, according to an analyst quoted by AllThingsD.

Wedge Partners analyst Brian Blair theorizes that BlackBerry’s ill-starred attempt to sell itself inflamed concerns about the future viability of the company’s platform and gave corporations good reason to migrate their employees to other devices. That opened up a significant opportunity for Apple — particularly since Android continues to struggle for gains in enterprise [...]

Said Blair, “Our recent work points to tremendous momentum for iPad in the enterprise over the last few months and we believe that this may be one of the most important trends for Apple as we move into the New Year.”

Steve Jobs said shortly after the launch of the iPad that Apple didn’t need to market the device to businesses as “it’s being grabbed out of our hands, anyways” … 

While Jobs may have considered enterprise-specific marketing unnecessary, Apple subsequently made the business market a specific target, intensifying its marketing with the launch of iOS 7.

Apple already boasts that 94 percent of the Fortune 500 companies are already “testing or deploying” iPads, with independent sources confirming the popularity of the tablet in large and small businesses alike.

Blair believes that the new iPad Air and Retina iPad Mini models, together with the decision to make the iWork software suite free, makes the product all the more compelling. In October, Deutsche Bank’s Chris Whitmore said that he expected the 64-bit A7 chip would help drive enterprise sales (though it should be noted he also expected Touch ID to make it into the new iPads).

Written by: Ben Lovejoy @benlovejoy December 3, 2013/5:42 am - 9to5mac.com