The US smartphone market is expected to reach its saturation point in 2017, according to estimations and calculations performed by Asymco analyst Horace Dediu. The iPhone is expected to hit 68 percent market share by then, based on the assumption that its growth mirrors that of the overall US smartphone market.
Based on historical data, Dediu expects the US to have 266 million smartphone users (90 percent penetration) by February 2017, with nearly 180 million of them using an iPhone. In other words, two in every three smartphone users will own an iPhone.
(Green: US smartphone, Red: iPhone, Yellow: Android)
From Asymco:
If we believe that the iPhone can be modeled behaviorally then it may be possible to forecast its growth. One can simply draw a line extending the existing red segment above and read the F/(1-F) figure at any point in time. Solving for F results in a measure of penetration and hence number of users (if population is known.)
An alternative is to use the following formula derived from the linear interpolation of the two measured market shares. iPhone market share is y/(1+y) where y=0.21x and x = F/(1-F) and F is the expected market penetration of smartphones.
So if F = 91%, x = 10, y = 2.11 and therefore the iPhone market share = 68%.
We also know from the plot of the market that F = .91 is reached around February 2017. So we can suggest that at 90% penetration (approximately saturation) the iPhone will have 68% market share of users in the US. Forecasting the addressable market (US population aged older than 13) at about 266 million that implies 180 million US users of the iPhone by early 2017.
The assumption here is that the iPhone’s growth is parallel to that of the overall smartphone market, which depends on Apple’s ability to make sure the iPhone is the most popular smartphone over the next three years. Do you think that is a reasonable assumption or it’s too far fetched?
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